They're the sports rights that will define the end of free TV in Australia
Back in late 2022, Australian broadcaster Nine won the rights to the next five Olympic Games broadcasts. That included:
2024: Paris
2026: Olympic Winter Games Milano Cortina
2028: Los Angeles
2030 Olympic Winter Games French Alps
2032 Brisbane
While Olympics coverage is always sought after, this set of rights was especially important for Nine as it would include the local Olympics to be held in Brisbane , Australia in 2032.
The rights would cover radio, television, and subscription television. With Nine selling its radio stations to the newly-formed Tapt Media, one is left wondering what Nine now plans to do with those radio rights it still holds…
When the rights were announced, my immediate question was whether there even would be a Nine broadcast network to carry the Brisbane Olympics on in 2032. Maybe a stretch, but a decade is a long time – especially in the very fast-paced world of media distribution. It’s 2026 now and it seems unlikely there won’t be a Nine broadcast channel when Brisbane finally hosts the Olympics. But also… let’s not rule the concern out completely just yet.
I’m not suggesting Nine Entertainment Co won’t be around. They have a subscription video streaming service and an ad-supported video on demand platform. In the not-too distant future Nine’s services will be all IP-delivered.
As a useful datapoint, the BBC in the UK plans on shifting to an IP-delivery future with plans to shut off terrestrial broadcasts in 2034. Does anyone really believe that Nine will outlast the BBC with its terrestrial broadcasting?
The time will come in the very near future where we see that tipping point where it will no longer be commercially viable for commercial broadcasters to bear the costs of terrestrial broadcasting.
There has been on my mind this week as momentum builds around the rights for the NRL.
Sam Buckingham-Jones reported for the AFR this week that Nine has made a bid for the rights which would have Nine hold the entire NRL package exclusively. If successful, it would be a huge blow to the DAZN-owned Foxtel, which has held partial NRL rights for the past thirty years.
It is a deal, that, like the Olympics bid, would have Nine holding the rights for its broadcast, subscription streaming, and ad-supported streaming channels. The deal would take us just past the 2032 Olympics, running 2028-2033.
The timing of this strikes me as a highly unique, perilous time to be spending all of this money on major sports rights at a time where the very nature of terrestrial broadcasting is at threat of going away.
Viewers will migrate from broadcast towards IP-delivered linear for news and sports. Viewing behaviour is already shifting largely toward this. And Nine is well-positioned for that eventuality.
These big broadcast deals are taking us right up to the cliff for the likely end of watching TV over the air and the networks that hold these sports rights are going to be in the strongest position to transition its viewers over to digital channels when the end comes.
The bid for the NRL has a greater existential survival element to it than just the rights to broadcast the footy.
The wrong lessons learned in “analysis”
A ridiculous report is floating around today from Ampere Analysis. It reports that the average gap between seasons of scripted original series on major streaming platforms has increased from 12 months in 2020 to 21 months in 2025. But it then starts to infer a lot of misleading facts about what this represents.
What’s ridiculous about the report, as per Broadband TV News:
Shows returning after gaps of more than 30 months achieved the highest premiere-month engagement, with titles including Apple TV’s Severance and Netflix’s Wednesday generating almost twice the average engagement despite long waits.
Okay, but can we also see stats on how many shows actually have a 30 month gap between seasons. And of those shows that do, how many of them are already among the highest viewed shows on platform? Also… what does “twice the engagement” actually mean when it relates to actual viewership and completion rates?
The problem with Ampere is that the research it does isn’t reflective of actual viewer behaviour as much as it is reflective of social media activity around the shows. That’s the data it crunches. It is to no surprise that big-budget sci-fi and fantasy shows have strong, vocal online followings. And these are the shows that are more than likely going to be shows with longer delays between seasons.
Ampere said the shift reflects the move towards high-end, blockbuster-style original productions, which require longer development and production timelines.
In the past year we have also seen streaming services chasing the so-called The Pitt model. These are returnable TV shows produced at a lower cost with a slightly higher episode count. I’d suggest that “the shift” has actually been in reverse from a commissioning standpoint for quite a while now…
News Desk
Ted Danson has another retirement home comedy in the works, this time at Apple TV alongside Elizabeth Banks and Rob Delaney. Read: THR
David E Kelley is adapting another Michael Connelly crime novel (following The Lincoln Lawyer). Welcome To Catalina is in development at HBO Max under The Pitt model. Read: Deadline
YouTube is giving greater prominence to labels identifying AI-generated video content. Read: YouTube Blog
Prime Video has ordered three TV shows from the GenAI Creators Fund, powered by Amazon MGM Studios’ AI production platform Project Nara. Read: thefutoncritic
It was diva behaviour that killed the beast. Apparently Tom Hardy would keep the cast (including Helen Mirren and Pierce Brosnan) waiting in power plays on the set of MobLand, which was part of what led to his being exited from the show. Read: THR
As was mostly expected, 60 Minutes correspondent Sharyn Alfonsi has seen her 60 Minutes contract expire. She remains a staff member at CBS News. Alfonsi was the hournalist responsible for the controversial story about the deportation of Venezuelan men to El Salvador. The story was delayed for nonsense political reasons by Bari Weiss. Read: Variety
Gina Ronehart has financed the purchase of a 10% stake in Australia’s Southern Cross Media, owner of the Seven network. Read: The Guardian
Patrick Brammall will star in new Apple TV show Last Seen, which, please correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe this is the first Australian Apple TV series? Read: thefutoncritic
RIP actor Charles Cioffi. Obits will talk about his role in Klute and All The Right Moves, but I’ll always know him as one of the FBI higher-ups who oversaw Dana Scully’s appointment to The X-Files (he’s there in the pilot and a further five episodes throughout the series run). Read: Deadline
Here’s Prime Video’s Canadian sizzle reel. You can also read about its lineup at thefutoncritic
Trailer Park
The new Zorro series starring Jean Dujardin debuts in the US and Canada on MHz Choice June 30. It has already streamed in France on France 2 and on Paramount+ in other international territories. Where’s the Australian acquisition for this one, my friends?
It is my strong belief that there should be a new Zorro TV series or set of movies at least every ten years.
Enola Holmes 3 debuts on Netflix July 1.
X-Men ‘97 returns for season 2 on Disney+ July 1,
Young Farts debuts on Prime Video July 17.
Groundswell debuts on Prime Video June 5.
That’s the newsletter for the today.
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